Contemporary Political Studies

Contemporary Political Studies

The Future of Elite Activism on X: A Causal Layered Analysis of Political Polarization and its Impact on Politics and Society in Iran

Document Type : .

Authors
Jalal Derakhshe 1
Seyed Mohammadsadegh Talebian 2
Seyed Mohammadhosein Badiey Khamsefard 3
1 Professor of Political Science, Imam Sadeq University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Political Sociology, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadeq University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, Iran
10.30465/cps.2025.52104.3571
Abstract
The escalating activism of elites on the X network (formerly Twitter) and its role in the emergence and intensification of political polarization has become a significant challenge for Iranian politics and society, particularly following the events of 1401 (2022-2023). The importance of this issue lies in the profound impacts of polarization on social cohesion, policy-making effectiveness, and political stability. This research, addressing the main question of what different layers shape this phenomenon and what its potential futures and consequences are for Iran, employs a qualitative methodology and a critical futures studies approach. Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), four distinct layers were explored: the litany (observable manifestations), systemic causes (structural and institutional roots), discourse/worldview (conflicting narratives and ideologies), and myth/metaphor (deep cultural symbols). Findings indicate that polarization on X is a product of the complex interaction of these four layers, and its future can range from the continuation of crisis to transformative scenarios. The novelty of this research lies in providing a multi-layered and forward-looking analysis of this phenomenon within the Iranian context and identifying its deeper discursive and mythical roots, which can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding and the adoption of more effective strategies to address this challenge.
Keywords
X Platform (Twitter)
Political Polarization
Futures Studies
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Iranian Politics and Society
Subjects