Abstract
Regardless of the analyzes and researches produced about the causes of the war between Russia and Ukraine; What is more important is the future of war and its consequences on the International Order. All the trends we have witnessed since the beginning of the war also confirm that this conflict will not end quickly due to the long distance between the preconditions of the parties to stop the war. This importance makes the necessity of accurate monitoring and reliable and anticipatory analysis of the position of major and regional players as well as the level and type of interactions between actors in transition conditions unavoidable. What is emphasized in this article is the focus on the future. The international order is centered on the war between Russia and Ukraine. From this point of view, the main question that can be asked is:
• What are the most important drivers and future scenarios of the Ukrainian war and the implications of each of these scenarios on the future of the international order?
• Will the war in Ukraine and its consequences strengthen the hegemonic position of the United States and the continuation of the current order led by the United States, or will it provide the conditions for the formation of other types of order?
Keywords: Ukraine war, Russia, the West, complexity, driving forces, scenarios, international order.
Introduction
Regardless of the analyzes and researches produced about the causes of the war between Russia and Ukraine; What is more important is the future of war and its consequences on the International Order. All the trends we have witnessed since the beginning of the war also confirm that this conflict will not end quickly due to the long distance between the preconditions of the parties to stop the war.
Materials & Methods
The intertwined, highly networked and evolving security environment at the internal, regional and international levels of analysis has created an atmosphere of ambiguity and uncertainty for the decision-making system of units. It can confront the existing units in the international environment with a surprise situation - either tactical or strategic - in managing national security and pursuing national goals and interests.
From this point of view, in this article, with an anticipatory approach, plausible & probable scenarios that can be analyzed in a 2-year time horizon focused on the war in Ukraine and its future are discovered, and a brief account of the atmosphere of those scenarios and its relationship with the international order. be provided for this purpose, among the various methods of futures studies, I use the method of critical uncertainty.
Here too, when our approach is anticipation, we should pay attention to the range of effective drivers in a realistic context that provides the possibility of a relative consensus among the elites and experts of that issue. This is possible through more accuracy in the status of drivers and more accurate monitoring of interactions and events in the international environment, as well as benefiting from the perspective of subject matter experts
Discussion & Result
The findings are that the future of war will be affected by five drivers, which are: the level of vulnerability of the West and NATO for the continuation or expansion of the war; the alignment level of EU members and the threshold of tolerance or resilience of European countries and the European community; The level of resilience and feasibility of Russian trade exchanges for the continuation of the war; China's approach to the war in Ukraine and the level of this country's relations with Russia; The level of regional tension in West Asia.
Examining the importance and uncertainty of each driver as well as analyzing the dependency of the drivers in the structural network, confirms that the two drivers include: a) NATO's level of risk taking for the continuation or expansion of the war and b) the level of coherence, resilience and feasibility of continuing Russian trade exchanges for the continuation of the war; It has higher importance and uncertainty compared to other propellants. From this point of view, four scenarios for the future of war are envisaged, in each of which the international situation can be estimated which include: "nuclear war", "strategic stalemate", "reinforcement of Russia", and "victorious Russia". These scenarios and why they are formed and their probability are explained in detail in the text of the article.
Conclusion
Although all these scenarios are possible. But among these, the scenarios of “restrained Russia” and “victorious Russia”, which are somewhat contradictory, seem more likely. This is a key point that nothing is certain about the future of the war in Ukraine. In fact, in these two scenarios, it is not very conceivable to expect that NATO and the West will decide to give special weapons to Ukraine or prepare for war with Russia, because the result of this decision may lead to a nuclear war. But whether they can intelligently restrain Russia in terms of economic pressure and imposed sanctions through cooperation with India and other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, or on the contrary, Russians can prevent the effectiveness of sanctions by cooperating with other governments, it will determine the future situation.
Obviously, if the "Victory Russia" scenario is realized, the current international order will definitely change, and on the other hand, if Russia is restrained, the current order, which is currently in transition, will return to a stable point with the representation of America