Contemporary Political Studies

Contemporary Political Studies

The behavior and motivation of the participants in the 11th Islamic Consultative Assembly elections from the perspective of Anthony Downs' rational choice model: Case study of Ahvaz city

Document Type : .

Authors
1 Ph.D. student of Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations, School of Law and Political Science, Science and Research Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Abstract
Participation in elections serves as the most effective tool for citizens to express their views on political and social matters and to influence their country's political destiny. Numerous factors shape the electoral behavior of individuals and participating groups, yielding varying outcomes, including economic variables. This paper addresses the reasons behind the decline in citizen participation in the Eleventh Majlis elections. To elucidate the issue, Anthony Downs' rational choice model is employed, which posits that citizens vote rationally to serve their economic interests. The statistical population for this study consists of residents of Ahvaz, and data was gathered through qualitative (purposive) and quantitative (random) research methods using a questionnaire. A total of 385 respondents were selected based on Cochran's formula, and the resulting data were analyzed using SPSS software. The findings indicate that alongside other factors, economic issues such as livelihood challenges, poverty, class disparities, inflation, and the protests of December 2017 and November 2019 significantly contributed to the decline in citizen participation in Ahvaz.
Keywords: Elections, Voting, Political Participation, Rational Choice Theory, Anthony Downs, Majlis.
 
Introduction
This study, grounded in Anthony Downs' rational choice model, aims to emphasize the impact of economic factors on the participation of citizens in the Eleventh Majlis elections by examining the statistical population of Ahvaz residents. According to the latest census data, Ahvaz is classified as one of Iran's metropolises, with a population exceeding 1.5 million as of 2016. The city is characterized by a heterogeneous composition, divided into three socioeconomic classes: lower, middle, and upper. Historically, the participation rate of Ahvazi citizens in various elections, including the ten previous Majlis elections, has consistently exceeded 51%. In the tenth Majlis elections, participation reached 50%. However, in the Eleventh Majlis elections, this figure dramatically dropped to 27%, indicating a significant decline compared to previous elections. Investigating the causes of this decline is the primary aim of the present study.
 
Materials & Methods
This research employs a descriptive correlational method with an exploratory approach to identify the dimensions of declining voter participation. Initially, a qualitative method utilizing grounded theory will be employed to extract relevant factors contributing to reduced electoral participation. Subsequently, a questionnaire will be developed for the second phase of the research, which will use a quantitative approach to distribute the questionnaire among the target population. After data collection, the results will be analyzed using SPSS and PLS Smart software, and the findings will be presented in tabular form. Each table will be interpreted, and the results will be elucidated. The statistical population consists of eligible voters in the Eleventh Majlis elections in Ahvaz, with systematic or screening sampling employed for participant selection.
 
Discussion & Result
The findings reveal a significant relationship between three main variables and the reduced participation of the statistical population (Ahvazi citizens) in the Eleventh Majlis elections. These variables include livelihood issues and unemployment; government performance, which is somewhat aligned with the Majlis; and the protests of December 2017 and November 2019. The economic variable plays a prominent role, as the protests emerged primarily from livelihood problems. Even in terms of the second variable (the somewhat aligned government performance with the Majlis), the inefficiency of governmental institutions in combating economic corruption cannot be overlooked. Major economic challenges include rising costs, high inflation, and unemployment. Environmental issues have also had various economic repercussions. Nationally, economic sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic have further exacerbated the situation. Given the reciprocal relationship between political participation and electoral behavior, adverse livelihood conditions negatively impact voter behavior in Majlis elections. Citizens, facing unmet economic needs, develop skepticism towards the political system. Moreover, it should be noted that the Eleventh Majlis elections did not provide an adequate political competition environment, resulting in political institutions and elites failing to create conditions for maximum participation.
 
Conclusion
The Eleventh Majlis elections in Iran were characterized by a notable decrease in participation compared to previous elections. Economic and livelihood challenges, sanctions, non-membership in FATF, the COVID-19 crisis, corruption and embezzlement, as well as the unrest of December 2017 and November 2019 have all impacted the political landscape and reduced electoral participation. As voting behavior has multiple dimensions and causes, it is essential to consider the electoral behavior of citizens in various regions with differing economic, cultural, and social conditions. Economic development should be prioritized as a necessary means to improve citizens' livelihoods. The present study, focusing on a sample of Ahvazi citizens during the aforementioned elections, demonstrated a significant relationship between their voting behavior and economic needs. To better achieve this objective, emphasis was placed on key characteristics that influence the voting process, including age, gender, marital status, education level, and income. In addition to economic indicators as primary causes of reduced participation, other factors—such as the government's poor performance, which is somewhat aligned with the Majlis—also play a role. These results are comprehensible within the framework of Downs' rational choice model, which serves as the theoretical foundation of this paper; citizens do not perceive their participation in elections as beneficial to their interests, leading to a loss of motivation and an inclination towards skepticism and despair. Consequently, unless citizens feel that their political participation will yield economic benefits, it is unlikely that they will be motivated towards maximizing their participation in accordance with the rational choice model.
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