Abstract
Oil revenues have constituted a foundational element of political stability in Saudi Arabia, fundamentally rooted in the rentier economic system. However, the projected decline in oil revenues over the forthcoming decades, coupled with the potential for an economic crisis, has prompted the Saudi leadership to conceive and enact Vision 2030 under the auspices of King Salman. This ambitious strategic framework places substantial emphasis on economic objectives and initiatives. This study endeavors to assess the impact of these emergent economic trends on the political stability of Saudi Arabia since 2015. The central research question is:  How do the economic trends and developments in Saudi Arabia during the reign of King Salman impact political stability within the nation? To address this inquiry, the study adopts David Sanders's operational perspective on political instability as a theoretical framework. The analysis concentrates on four pivotal components of Saudi Arabia's evolving economic landscape: economic growth and prosperity; unemployment rates; inflation and the consumer price index; and the prevalence of poverty and inequality. The principal finding of this article indicates that the policies and programs instituted by the Saudi government via Vision 2030 have yielded relative improvements in economic conditions and indicators, thereby contributing to the sustenance of political stability. However, the social and political transformations arising from the establishment of a non-oil economy are likely to engender conditions and frameworks that may precipitate new instabilities for Saudi Arabia.
Keywords: Saudi Arabia, political stability, Vision 2030, economic transformations, King Salman.
 
Introduction
Since King Salman ascended to the throne in 2015, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant developments across various sectors, resulting in substantial changes within the country. A primary focus of the Saudi government's policies during this period has been the implementation of the Vision 2030 program, which aims to achieve profound and comprehensive economic transformations. This initiative has garnered considerable attention from analysts and observers. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also witnessed top-down cultural and social reforms, particularly concerning women's rights, alongside a more assertive regional foreign policy. However, the leadership of Mohammad bin Salman in transforming the economic landscape signifies profound and enduring changes that could have long-term implications for the nation's political stability. This paper aims to examine the economic conditions and trends in Saudi Arabia, with an emphasis on Vision 2030, and to assess its potential impacts on the nation's political stability.
 
Materials & Methods
This article commences with an examination of conceptual perspectives on political stability and instability, adopting David Sanders’ operational framework as its theoretical foundation. Sanders defines political instability as "the occurrence of changes or challenges in government, regime, and political society that fall outside the usual and conventional patterns." He emphasizes the "spectrum-like nature" and "relative nature" of instability, highlighting that it varies across different temporal and spatial contexts. Subsequently, the article delves into the objectives and dimensions of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, centering on the leadership’s initiatives to diversify the economy. Four primary indicators are analyzed to assess the emerging economic trends and conditions in Saudi Arabia: economic growth and prosperity; employment status and unemployment rate; inflation rate and consumer price index; and the status of poverty and inequality. The concluding section addresses the implications of these trends for the political stability of the Saudi government. This explanatory study employs a qualitative approach for data collection, utilizing library and internet-based resources.
 
Discussion & Results
In recent years, the economic conditions and trends in Saudi Arabia, framed by Vision 2030, have resulted in both advancements and challenges. Economic growth has been predominantly propelled by increasing oil prices and an expansion in non-oil production, underscoring significant elements of the country’s contemporary economic landscape. Furthermore, improvements in employment and housing, the stabilization of inflation levels, and a relative strengthening of the private sector indicate progress under Vision 2030.
Nevertheless, these positive developments coexist with persistent issues, including ongoing economic inequality, disparities in income distribution, enduring poverty in specific regions, and a shortfall in attracting foreign investments projected under Vision 2030. Although there is evidence of relative improvement in economic conditions and some notable successes, realizing the broader objectives of Vision 2030—especially the transition from an oil-dependent to a non-oil economy—poses substantial challenges. The relative improvement in Saudi Arabia’s economy indicates that the leadership may partially succeed in addressing potential instabilities associated with these economic challenges. However, the social and political transformations resulting from these economic developments could give rise to new sources of instability. Key factors such as the enhancement of the private sector, cultural shifts due to the growth of tourism and entertainment, reduced benefits for citizens derived from the state-run rentier economy, economic pressures and poverty experienced by certain demographics, the expanding divide between traditional and modern sectors, and the emergence of new social and political demands are likely to contribute to dissatisfaction and instability cumulatively. The interplay of economic and social issues, alongside the persistent authoritarian structures within the political system, suggests that various forms of instability may manifest across different domains.
 
conclusion
while the economic reforms outlined in Vision 2030 have positively influenced the legitimacy of the Saudi government and reinforced political stability, the potential for instability persists. Increased discontent could pose challenges for the government, including the possibility of protests. Within the political regime, the growing divide between traditional and modern factions, coupled with rising dissatisfaction among religious and conservative groups, may undermine legitimacy and potentially result in security threats or acts of terrorism against the Saudi regime. Moreover, rising discontent could necessitate changes at the governmental level, including alterations in various ministerial roles and adjustments among economic or political-security officials. Should economic changes be accompanied by significant advancements and new political demands, calls for greater political participation within the authoritarian regime could further challenge Saudi Arabia’s political stability in various respects.