Abstract
Participatory governance is rooted in the decentralization of power and emerges from the collaboration of three key institutions: the private sector, the government, and the populace. A crucial factor in establishing consensus, authority, and national security is the active involvement of citizens in various national contexts. This participation serves as a manifestation of governance legitimacy and acts as a guarantor of political stability. Engaging the public can provide the most effective support for addressing political and social challenges. In Iran, achieving participatory governance—and more specifically, popular governance—is essential for advancing the objectives outlined in the second step of the revolution. A deeper connection between the people and the government is necessary for this progress, particularly through engagement with middle circles of society.
In Iran, following the victory of the Islamic Revolution, public participation alongside the government and private sector in management, political, jihadist, and cultural spheres was somewhat stabilized. This collaboration manifested through institutions such as the Construction Jihad and Agricultural Jihad, where the people's involvement with the government became evident in addressing various issues. However, over time, as these grassroots organizations were integrated into the government, the role and participation of the people diminished.
Given the significance of governance and participatory governance, as well as their effectiveness, a critical question arises: What are the drivers influencing the future of participatory governance in Iran? Furthermore, by identifying these drivers, what scenarios can be developed to address this issue?
Keywords: Governance, Participatory Governance, Middle circles, Future Studies, Scenario writing.
 
Introduction
Materials & Methods
In this article, in the first step, by analyzing the content of articles published in the field of participatory governance, 25 drivers were identified, and the number of 15 main drivers was calculated in consultation with experts. In the second step, the numerical weighting of the drivers was done in the cross analysis table. In this way, ten experts were asked to determine the numerical weight of the drivers. Data analysis was done using Mic Mac software.
 
Discussion & Result
The study aims to identify the driving forces influencing the future of participatory governance in Iran through driving theory and expert opinions, utilizing Mic Mac software for analysis. The results led to the development of four future scenarios for participatory governance in Iran:
1. Maximum Participatory Governance: This scenario envisions a robust presence of public institutions, where both public and private sectors effectively collaborate. The government has limited power and operates with agility, adhering to the rule of law.
2. Absence of Participatory Governance: Here, the lack of active popular institutions results in a scenario devoid of participatory governance, with all responsibilities falling on an oversized government. The role of citizens is entirely overlooked in policymaking and implementation.
3. Minimal Participatory Governance: Characterized by low public institution participation, this scenario indicates that many key drivers are nearing crisis. Regulatory and less strategic drivers limit citizen engagement, creating a disconnect between the populace and government operations, and most affairs at various levels of policymaking, planning, and implementation are carried out by the government. The role of the private sector and the public in the governance of society becomes significantly diminished. The people do not have a position to oversee the performance of the government.
4. Transition to Popular Governance: The fourth and most desirable scenario envisions a transition from participatory governance to a state of empowered popular governance, facilitated by the active presence and engagement of vibrant community institutions. In this framework, all key drivers, along with less strategic and regulatory elements, work in synergy to strengthen participatory governance and empower citizens as the primary stakeholders in the governance process. In this scenario, the political system demonstrates effective performance and responsiveness within the context of making governance processes truly people-oriented and inclusive. The state faces limitations on its influence and power, while simultaneously promoting a more agile, decentralized, and citizen-centric model of governance. The rule of law prevails throughout all processes, ensuring fairness, accountability, and transparency. Citizen participation is significantly enhanced through improved access to education, the fostering of public trust in institutions, and the expansion of diverse participatory mechanisms. These mechanisms include the active involvement of civil society organizations, cooperative sectors, and a wide array of community institutions representing various interests and demographics. Under these conditions, public oversight alongside government accountability and transparency—coupled with a reduction in bureaucratic red tape—enhances the effectiveness of the political system and fosters greater motivation for increased participation.
 
Conclusion
The findings suggest that the ideal scenario involves transitioning from participatory governance to popular governance, achievable through institutionalization and capacity building for public institutions. The realization of this transition hinges on the active engagement of popular institutions and civil society, contingent upon a political system that fosters their participation. If these conditions are met, a future characterized by popular governance can emerge from existing participatory frameworks. The activation of the middle circles is essential for this process to take place.