scenarios of the Ukrainian war & international order

Document Type : .

Author

university of tehran

10.30465/cps.2024.48403.3369

Abstract

Although the future of the international order and its coordinates can be analyzed from different angles and from different levels of analysis, the complexity caused by rapid developments, network relationships, major events and frequent changes in the approaches and policies of major governments during the transition period, A situation of deep uncertainty prevails over the future of the order, which makes it impossible to reliably estimate and predict how it will be and faces internal contradictions. In this article, focusing on the war in Ukraine as a key event in the future state of the international order, the question is addressed, what are the future scenarios of the war in Ukraine and its implications for the international order? To answer this question, an attempt has been made to The foresight approach and the key uncertainty method, which are the approaches corresponding to the methodology of complexity in the philosophy of science, should be used.

The findings confirm that out of the total of 5 main driving forces shaping the future of the war in Ukraine, two driving forces include: a) the level of NATO's risk tolerance for the continuation or extension of the war, and b) the level of cohesion, resilience and the possibility of continuation Russian trade exchanges to continue the war; It has higher uncertainty and importance, and according to the states of uncertainty, a total of four scenarios including: "nuclear war", "strategic stalemate", "reinforcement of Russia", and "victory Russia" as scenarios with The probability of occurrence is high in the next two years.

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Contemporary Political Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 April 2024

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