آینده کنشگری نخبگان در ایکس: تحلیل لایه‌ای دوقطبی‌سازی و تأثیر آن بر سیاست و جامعه در ایران

The escalating activism of elites on the X network (formerly Twitter) and its role in the emergence and intensification of political polarization has become a significant challenge for Iranian politics and society, particularly following the events of 1401 (2022-2023). The importance of this issue lies in the profound impacts of polarization on social cohesion, policy-making effectiveness, and political stability. This research, addressing the main question of what different layers shape this phenomenon and what its potential futures and consequences are for Iran, employs a qualitative methodology and a critical futures studies approach. Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), four distinct layers were explored: the litany (observable manifestations), systemic causes (structural and institutional roots), discourse/worldview (conflicting narratives and ideologies), and myth/metaphor (deep cultural symbols). Findings indicate that polarization on X is a product of the complex interaction of these four layers, and its future can range from the continuation of crisis to transformative scenarios. The novelty of this research lies in providing a multi-layered and forward-looking analysis of this phenomenon within the Iranian context and identifying its deeper discursive and mythical roots, which can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding and the adoption of more effective strategies to address this challenge.