جستارهای سیاسی معاصر

جستارهای سیاسی معاصر

جنگ اوکراین و تاثیر آن بر آینده روابط انرژی ایران و اتحادیه اروپا

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی مقطع دکتری رشته روابط بین الملل، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
2 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، واحد شهرضا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرضا، ایران
3 استاد گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه القاسم گرین، عراق
چکیده
اروپا پیش از حمله روسیه به اوکراین در سال 2022، به این کشور برای برآوردن نیازهای انرژی خود متکی بود. اما روسیه، بعد از وقوع جنگ، در واکنش به تحریم‌های اقتصادی اعمال شده توسط اتحادیه اروپا و غرب، صادرات هشتاد درصد گاز طبیعی خود به اروپا را قطع کرد. در نتیجه اروپا در حال حاضر به دنبال منابع جدید برای تامین انرژی خود است که در این بین، ایران، با توجه به غنای منابع و موقعیت جغرافیایی خاص، می‏تواند نقش مهمی ایفا نماید. پرسش اساسی مقاله حاضر این است: جنگ اوکراین چه فرصت‏ها و چالش‏هایی را برای روابط انرژی ایران و اتحادیه اروپا به وجود آورده است؟ فرضیه‏ای که متعاقب این سئوال مطرح می‏شود: وقوع جنگ اوکراین، از یک سو ایران را به عنوان یک منبع جایگزین برای تامین انرژی اروپا مطرح نموده است و از سوی دیگر، با توجه به همکاری‏های راهبردی ایران و روسیه به منظور کاهش تحریم‏های غرب، بر پیچیدگی اوضاع اضافه کرده است. یافته‏های تحقیق دال بر آن است که روسیه برای جبران بازار از دست رفته اروپا، به تصاحب بازارهای مشتریان اصلی انرژی ایران از جمله چین و هند نیاز دارد. علاوه بر این، تحریم‏های آمریکا و روابط مخدوش ایران با غرب نیز مانع برقراری دیپلماسی انرژی فعال بین این کشور و اتحادیه اروپا می‏باشد. به نظر می‏رسد ایران در راستای تبدیل شدن به یک بازار عمده انرژی برای اروپا، نیازمند بازنگری در سیاست خارجی خود به ویژه در حوزه انرژی، هم در قبال روسیه و هم در قبال اتحادیه اروپا باشد که البته در حال حاضر این مسئله تحت‏الشعاع جنگ اوکراین و همکاری ایران با روسیه قرار گرفته است. در مقاله حاضر به روش توصیفی - تحلیلی نوشته شده و داده ‏ها با استفاده از شیوه کتابخانه‏ای و فیش‏برداری تهیه شده‏ اند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the future of energy relations between Iran and the European Union

نویسندگان English

Ahmed Alhajim 1
Bashir Esmaeili 2
Ali Hadi Humaidi Alshokrawy 3
Mohammad Reza Aqarabparast 2
1 PhD student in International Relations, Isfahan branch (Khorasgan), Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Shahreza Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahreza, Iran
3 Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Al Qasim Green University, Iraq Email: ali.alshokrawy@science.uoqasim.edu.iq
چکیده English

Abstract
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe relied on Russia for its energy needs. But Russia, after the war, in response to the economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the West, cut off the export of 80% of its natural gas to Europe. As a result, Europe is currently looking for new sources for its energy supply. In the meantime, Iran can play an important role due to its wealth of resources and special geographical location. The basic question of this article: What opportunities and challenges has the Ukraine war created for the energy relations between Iran and the European Union? The hypothesis that is raised following this question: The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, on the one hand, has raised Iran as an alternative source of energy supply for Europe, and, on the other hand, considering the strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia in order to the reduction of Western sanctions has added to the complexity of the situation. The research findings indicate that Russia needs to take over the markets of Iran's main energy customers, including China and India, in order to compensate for the lost European market. In addition, US sanctions and Iran's disturbed relations with the West also prevent the establishment of active energy diplomacy between this country and the European Union. This article is written in a descriptive-analytical method and the data was prepared using the library method and data collection.
Keywords: Russian invasion of Ukraine, European Union, Iran, energy, energy security.
 
 
Introduction
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has created a huge energy crisis in the EU, which on the one hand undermines its energy security and threatens future gas shortages, and on the other hand, is a powerful tool for a range of new initiatives. In the meantime, Iran is considered one of the best energy supply options for the European Union due to its rich oil and gas reserves and resources, as well as due to its special geographical and geopolitical position in energy transit. But a series of factors and components have made Iran unable to take advantage of the opportunity. The current article, knowing the complexity of the energy relations between Iran and the European Union, especially after the Ukraine war, seeks to study the future of the relations between Iran and the European Union in the field of energy in two forms, opportunities and threats.
 
Materials and methods
This article explains the future of relations between Iran and the European Union in the field of energy by adopting a descriptive-analytical method and relying on available sources and data. In order to realize this purpose, in the theoretical framework of energy security, this article will try to relate the effects of the confrontation between Russia and the European Union in the field of energy for Iran as a major exporter of gas, which due to sanctions and international isolation in the trends Extraction, export and especially energy transmission is faced with many problems from a critical perspective and provide suggestions.
 
Discussions and results
Iran is one of the best options for the European Union in order to reduce dependence on Russian gas, especially after the war in Ukraine and the crisis in relations between Russia and the West. However, the American sanctions against Iran on the one hand and the lack of clarity on the principles governing Iran's foreign policy towards Europe and Russia and the ambiguity in redefining national interests on the other hand have led to a lack of strategic cooperation between Iran and the European Union. To be in the long-term exchange of oil and gas energy. Considering the vast number of resources and energy reservoirs, Iran can play an effective role in this field, and this country and the European Union should take a step towards a kind of long-term strategic cooperation. The opportunities for Iran are as follows:
1. providing heavy expenses due to investment in oil and gas fields;
2. Iran becoming an important corridor for gas transfers between Central Asia and the European Union due to access to the resources of the Mazandaran Sea, swaps through open waters, gas supply from Turkey to European countries, increased gas exports to India and China;
3. Updating and improving the oil and gas industry through European technology.
The challenges facing Iran are as follows:
1. American sanctions and Iran's international isolation and lack of stable economic relations with the West;
2. Iran's relations with Russia, especially in the light of the war in Ukraine and its impact on the view of the European Union (which supports Ukraine) towards Iran;
3. Russian investment restrictions in Iran's oil and gas industry;
4. Problems caused by Iran's lack of access to the revenues from the sale of its oil;
5. The Kremlin is concerned about Iran becoming an alternative energy supplier to Europe, especially after the relative failure of the JCPOA.
 
Conclusion
Since the war in Ukraine, when relations between Russia and the European Union have faced a crisis, especially in the field of energy, Iran, despite having the second largest gas reserves in the world, as well as rich oil resources, as well as its geographical and strategic location in the region, is a very suitable option for meeting the energy needs of Europe. The acquisition of the European energy market by Iran can have many benefits for this country. However, there are also challenges on the way of these relationships; Among them are the US sanctions and the isolation of Iran, the intense competitive environment between energy producers, the lack of continuous relations and strong energy-oriented cooperation between Iran and Europe. In addition, Iran's relations with Russia have entered a new phase after the Ukraine war. On the one hand, due to Iran's alignment with some of Russia's policies, strategic cooperation has been established between these two countries, which has distorted the improvement of Iran's relations with Europe. On the other hand, Russia is also looking to take over Iran's major energy customers. All of these factors have caused the war in Ukraine and the crisis in relations between Russia and the West to create both opportunities and challenges for Iran to play a possible role in supplying the European energy market in the short and long term, which is naturally the lack of energy diplomacy.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Russian invasion of Ukraine
European Union
Iran
energy
energy security
حاجی مینه، رحمت و رضایی راد، ابراهیم. (1403)، «امنیت انرژی ایران پس از جنگ اوکراین»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، قابل دسترس در:  doi: 10.22034/fr.2024.405798.1408
سلیمانی، یاسر (1401)، «تحلیل حمله روسیه به اوکراین از منظر امنیت انرژی ایران»، امنیت اقتصادی، سال دهم، شماره 5، مرداد 1401، صص 78ـ69.
سیمبر، رضا؛ جمال‏زاده، آذین دخت و اسکندرزاده راسته کناری، فریبا (1402)، «دیپلماسی انرژی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قبال اتحادیه اروپا بعد از بحران اوکراین ۲۰۲۲»، دومین همایش ملی سیاست خارجی ایران،کرمان، قابل دسترس در: https://civilica.com/doc/1994901
شیروی، عبدالحسین؛ ابراهیمی، نصرالله؛ اصغریان، مجتبی. (1388). «اکتشاف و توسعه میادین نفتی ایران از طریق قراردادهای بیع متقابل»، مجله حقوقی بین‏المللی، شماره 41 (پاییز و زمستان)، صص 262ـ243.
هموئی، فاطمه؛ برزگر، کیهان؛ احمدی، حمید و دهشیار، حسین (1400)، «نقش ایران در تأمین انرژی آینده اتحادیه اروپا»، فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری (بررسی‏های اقتصادی سابق)، 18 (14)، صص 224ـ191.