سناریوهای آینده بحران مشروعیت در نظام جمهوری اسلامی ایران

The legitimacy crisis, which primarily affects political systems, is one of the crises that, in addition to being caused by the dysfunctions of the governing system, has social effects and signs. It also relates to the regulation and quality of interaction between the government and society. If the early signs of a legitimacy crisis are identified before it occurs, by developing appropriate strategies, programs, and actions, political systems can avoid being caught off guard and trapped in widespread and endless crises that are interconnected. The aim of the present research is, in the first step, to identify these drivers and, in the next step, to answer this key question: based on the identified drivers, what scenarios can be drawn for the future of social hope in Iran?

The main approach of the research is future-oriented and exploratory. The research method is based on Peter Schwartz’s scenario planning method, and the tools used include semi-structured and structured questionnaires with experts. Data analysis was conducted using the MICMAC software. In the first step of the research, through environmental scanning of texts and articles and expert questionnaires, 42 drivers shaping the legitimacy crisis were identified. After controlling and merging them, 15 main macro drivers were analyzed as the drivers of the legitimacy crisis in the Islamic Republic of Iran. From the interaction of these drivers, three scenarios were drawn: the collapse of the state’s identity and structure and the formation of a totalitarian state, the politicization of society and the accumulation of demands, and the enhancement of the democratic system.